What’s Next for Mobile Communications?

It took 120 years for the world to connect 1 billion people. It took 14 years to connect the next 3 billion. Since the early 1980s and the beginning of the mobile phone revolution until now, people have come to expect always being connected to their friends through e-mail, social networking, text messaging or just a phone call. The question is: “What’s next?”

WCAI will hold a member-only webinar to examine the evolution of the mobile phone. From an analog cellular transmission device to LTE smartphones of today, we’ll look at where we started 30 years ago and how the industry will grow in the next five years. The webinar, called Evolution of Mobility: Where We've Been and Where We Are Going, is scheduled for Thursday, Nov. 10 at 4 pm ET and features Eric Estroff, head of product collaboration at Nokia. Register Now!

Spectrum Buzz

By John Celentano, Strategic Marketing, TESSCO Technologies

Seems like radio frequency (RF) spectrum, or lack of it, is a hot topic these days.

Consider the recent buzz on spectrum in the industry.

• AT&T, in addition to owning a large block of 700 MHz spectrum along with its 850/1900 MHz holdings for its cellular network, is willing to plunk down $39 billion to buy T-Mobile USA, ostensibly to gain access to T-Mobile USA’s extensive spectrum holdings across the country. If the deal goes through, AT&T gains T-Mobile USA’s existing 1900 MHz spectrum and more importantly, the 120 licenses of AWS (1.7/2.1 GHz) 20 MHz spectrum for which T-Mobile USA paid $4 billion in the 2006 auction.

• Right behind that, AT&T has offered to buy 22 700 MHz licenses from a rural service provider that operates in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

• Verizon already has started its LTE build-out in the 700 MHz band as an overlay to its existing CDMA 1900 MHz network. The company just announced LTE build-outs in 21 new markets starting in June 2011.

• Sprint with its Network Vision architecture intends to recast its customer access to available spectrum by consolidating its holdings across the 800/900, 1900 and 2500 MHz bands.

• On May 20, 2011, the FCC issued a Public Notice inviting technical input on how to maximize the 2 GHz band for fixed/mobile applications.

• WCAI itself has been vocal in calling for channel allocations that are both wider and contiguous in certain bands such as 2.5 GHz. Such adoption by regulators would make use of this spectrum more “effective and efficient.”

Spectrum translates into bandwidth. More bandwidth means wider channels for carrying information. Wider channels mean faster download speeds that can support a greater array of services: high-speed Internet access, mobile voice, and increasingly, video. And more services simply means greater revenues for the service providers.

Where is all this demand for more spectrum coming from? Quite simply, it comes from the surge in usage of data-intensive smartphones, tablets, and mobile-enabled laptops that is driving demand for any speed, anywhere, any media services. If the carriers are going to deliver, they will need access to more spectrum wherever it can be made available.

Consider what happened when AT&T first released the Apple iPhone. In the beginning, the company was pleasantly surprised at the customer take-rates despite the iPhone’s high purchase price. But then, with literally millions of iPhones coming online in major markets in a matter of months, AT&T began to see its network suddenly bog down as all those data-rich devices tried to get a high-speed connection. Clearly, the company was unprepared for the surge in data traffic usage that iPhones generated. Needless to say, iPhone users were not very happy with AT&T’s performance. So the company embarked on a rapid network upgrade program to expand capacity in both the access network between customers and cell sites, and in the backhaul network that connects cell sites to switching centers. AT&T’s current motivation in scooping up more spectrum likely has as much to do with avoiding future network congestion as it does for providing new data-rich services. In this context, all wireless service providers, whether in metro or rural markets, are facing similar capacity issues.

This situation begs the question: how much investment will be needed to build the network that can handle all this traffic?

Two main factors drive wireless capital expenditures (capex) – the number of wireless devices connected to the network, and the minutes of use (MOUs-voice & data) that each device generates. The number of devices is proliferating when you count smartphones, tablets, mobile-enabled laptops, and growing volume of machine-to-machine (M2M) connections for a host of industrial and commercial applications. And each device is churning out ever-increasing megabits per second of information. Taken together, the data traffic load on the network is expected to grow at high double-digit rates annually with no foreseeable deadline. This means that wireless carriers will book, for some time, significant capex as they expand area coverage and increase data-handling capacity, while beefing up the backhaul network throughput.

In the end, this capex pace and duration will be gated by the amount of spectrum being freed up over the next several years. That will create even more buzz!

WCAI Responds to NAB President Gordon Smith’s Keynote

WCAI President and CEO Fred Campbell released the following statement in response to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith’s keynote address at the NAB conference:

“Broadcasters say the spectrum crisis would be solved once the mobile broadband providers build out the spectrum they recently acquired at auction. The fallacy here is that demand projections supporting the need for more spectrum already assume all previously auctioned spectrum will be built out. Broadcasters are the ones warehousing spectrum they received for free and use to serve only ten percent of the population.”

WCAI 4G Caucus Wraps Up with Discussions on Backhaul, LTE Migration, 3.65 GHz Regulations

The WCAI’s 4G Caucus wrapped up today with a semi-annual, member-only joint meeting of the Engineering and Regional Operator committees. The two-day event generated a lot of productive debates and announcements, including from FCC Wireless Bureau Chief Ruth Milkman, who said the Commission yesterday circulated an NPRM in response to the WCAI’s 2.5 GHz OOBE (out-of-band emissions) petition. The announcement is great news for the wireless broadband industry in the U.S. as it represents an important step toward harmonizing the 2.5 GHz band internationally and realizing the economies of scope and scale.

During the committee meeting’s roundtable discussion today, WCAI members addressed such issues as 4G network backhaul, migration to LTE and the impact it has on regional operators, as well as regulatory issues facing the 3.65 GHz band. Excellent presentations were delivered by LBA Group CTO Chris Horne, DragonWave CTO Erik Boch, Sioux Valley Wireless Technical Director Joel Brick, and JAB Broadband VP, Technical Operations, Bret Westwood. Also at the meeting, WCAI Regulatory Counsel Paul Sinderbrand of Wilkinson Barker Knauer provided a comprehensive update on key regulatory issues facing the industry and advised the members on how best to address them.

We at WCAI would like to thank everyone who helped make the 4G Caucus a success, especially our speakers, sponsors and media/research partners.

We look forward to seeing you again at 4G World on October 24-27 in Chicago. Please use WCAI discount code (4GWMS22) to save $200 on registration and support WCAI.

WCAI 4G Caucus Kicks Off with Discussions on Spectrum, AT&T/T-Mobile Merger, 4G Migration Strategies

Gerry Salemme, Partner at Eagle River, kicked off the WCAI 4G Caucus this morning with a fireside chat keynote led by WCAI President Fred Campbell. In a lively discussion of the future of mobile technologies Mr. Salemme spoke about the growing data demand and spectrum issues, the AT&T/T-Mobile merger and the chances of its approval, the gaining momentum of LTE and its potential impact on Clearwire and regional players in the 2.5 GHz band, as well as the economy and the availability of investment capital affecting 4G network deployment in the U.S. Mr. Salemme, who is an advisor to the Clearwire CEO on business and spectrum strategy, also clarified the relationship between Clearwire and Sprint, saying that it’s “more cooperative than people expect.”

The opening keynote was followed by a panel on 4G network migration strategies led by one of the most distinguished industry analysts Berge Ayvazian of Heavy Reading. During the panel, experts from Sprint, AT&T, FiberTower and Tessco discussed their views on the transition from 3G to 4G networks, key challenges of the migration the industry faces, and how policy management solutions can help manage the transition.

Still ahead is the day packed with lively discussions and networking opportunities. Iyad Tarazi, Vice President, Network Development and Engineering at Sprint, will speak about how Sprint’s Network Vision is expected to consolidate multiple network technologies into one, seamless network. Following his keynote presentation, Mr. Campbell of WCAI will lead the discussion on adapting regulations to the new realities of 4G technologies. The panel will feature FCC Wireless Bureau Chief Ruth Milkman, along with regulatory experts from AT&T, Sprint, Clearwire and Wilkinson Barket Knauer.

Other program highlights include a keynote from Sybase an SAP Company on real-time actionable intelligence strategies for 4G operators; a keynote from Alvarion on building 4G smart grid, as well as panel discussions on broadband spectrum options for smart grid applications and on fixed wireless innovations.

Wrapping up the first day of the event will be the popular WCAI Networking Dinner at Ruth’s Chris, one of the best steak houses in town.

So if you are not already here, come join us for the exciting day of discussions and networking!

Report Shows Consumers Are Making Smart Choices about Wireless Billing Overages

Today the Wireless Communications Association International (WCAI) released a study analyzing overages on wireless consumer bills. The report was authored by Roger Entner of Recon Analytics, who was previously a Senior Vice President at The Nielsen Company. The study, which analyzed more than 78,000 customer bills, found that less than half a percent of consumers experience overages that could even be considered candidates for the pejorative “shocking.” The other 99.7% of consumers actually save money by incurring the occasional overage rather than paying a higher, recurring rate for an upgraded plan. In other words, nearly every single wireless consumer studied was better off incurring some overages than upgrading to a plan they don’t need.

This means that the rules proposed by the FCC would benefit, at most, 0.3% of consumers. At the same time, all wireless consumers would be subject to repeated messages warning them of potential overages. All wireless consumers would also bear the cost of the upgrades wireless service providers would be required to make in order to comply with the FCC’s proposed regulations. If the FCC intends to adhere to President Obama’s Executive Order directing agencies to “propose or adopt a regulation only upon a reasoned determination that its benefits justify its costs,” the FCC should not adopt its proposed “bill shock” rules. There is no reasonable basis for imposing costly regulations on wireless service providers and subjecting all consumers to repeated notices in order to prevent 0.3% of consumers from incurring uneconomic overages.

WCAI’s GDC to Hold a Webinar on Spectrum Policy in Latin America

Those interested in learning from experts about spectrum policy issues facing Latin America today can’t miss a FREE WCAI webinar on Friday, Feb. 26 at 11 am (U.S. Eastern Time).

The webinar will focus on several countries in the region, with special emphasis on Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. The speakers will outline options for effective service rules for the 2.6 GHz and other bands, as well as the challenges of reforming spectrum caps while ensuring appropriate competition policy.

The webinar will feature Allan Ingraham, Ph.D., Founder and Partner, Empiris, LLC and Wayne Leighton, Ph.D., Professor of Economics, Francisco Marroquín University, Guatemala and Partner, Empiris, LLC.

Organized by the WCAI’s Global Development Committee (GDC), the webinar is free of charge and open to all. For more information or to register, please visit the Webinar Registration Page or contact Susan Polyakova.

2010 Prediction: A Mix of WiMAX Smartphones and Low-Cost Devices to Emerge

By Guest Blogger Pascal Deriot, Senior Analyst & Partner, WiMAX & LTE Equipment, Maravedis

In a recent interview, Sprint CEO Dan Hesse commented that not only was its network up and running, but its compelling and cool devices, such as dual-mode 3G/4G smartphones, will make WiMAX a successful adoption. On the same front, Clearwire CEO Bill Morrow explained that the second stage of Clearwire’s business model, targeting the PDA/smartphone market, is to happen in the second half of 2010. Although Yota has proved that smartphones can be a great vehicle to promote the fantastic bandwidth capability of the first 4G technology, we also project that the cost of the WiMAX platform is another angle that needs to be considered.

As previously seen in Wi-Fi or 3GPP/3GPP2 markets, WiMAX chipset vendors have leveraged their first or second generations to further reduce chipset costs by migrating to a smaller geometry process node, and/or by introducing monolithic dies. At the same time, new packaging approaches, such as System-in-Package and optimized Bill Of Material (BOM), have significantly reduced the footprint of the WiMAX platform, allowing device manufacturers to launch a new generation of products that are more appealing, integrated, and that combine 3G and 4G standards.

The new research report released by WCAI member Maravedis in partnership with Reveal Wireless, “WiMAX Wave2 Subscriber Station Chipset Vendors Competitive Analysis” provides a detailed comparison of the key WiMAX chipset vendors, identifying system architectures, estimating chipset and system BOM, and cost of available devices such as CPEs, USB dongles or Express Cards. One of the report’s major findings is that WiMAX mass-market adoption may require sub-US$10 chipsets that are power and performance optimized for each application-specific segment. Maravedis and Reveal Wireless have identified three chipset vendors best positioned to achieve the US$10 price target through base-band and RF monolithic die integration in 65-nm.

Although most of the available chipsets are not highly optimized because they were compelled to cover a broad range of application segments, an additional study revealed that device manufacturers could build a basic WiMAX USB dongle solution for as low as sub US$50, while maintaining healthy profit margins. The figure below presents the breakdown of the cost of the USB dongle: the electronic BOM (eBOM) is composed of all the platform components, excluding the chipset. A basic USB dongle platform can be divided into 3 main sub-systems: base-band, RF and power management sub-systems, bringing the component count to 150-200 components. The rBOM, also called sometimes mBOM, defines the mechanical Bill-Of-Material. It contains the non-electronic components such as connectors, USB plug, antennas, PCB, housing, shielding or screws. Our total manufacturing cost estimation includes the labor cost, profit and SG&A. According to our research the WiMAX chipset, by its complexity and silicon die size, represents 44% of the total cost.

Moreover, our analysis shows that a combination of an aggressive Bill-Of-Material reduction by 20-30%, combined with a second generation chipset and higher production volumes, could further shrink the cost of the USB dongle by roughly 20%, providing a sub-US$40 product in 2010 time-frame.

We believe that WiMAX mass-market adoption requires a ubiquitous coverage and technology maturity, a mixed portfolio of appealing, integrated and low cost devices, and competitive WiMAX chipsets. We have no doubt that all these ingredients will be ready next year contributing to a fantastic growth of the WiMAX market, in all regions.

MARAVEDIS is a leading analyst firm focusing on disruptive technologies including smart networks using WiMAX, IEEE, and 3GPP/LTE. For more information about Maravedis, please visit http://www.maravedis-bwa.com/ or contact info@maravedis-bwa.com.

Airspan 3.65 GHz Band FCC Certification Redefines U.S. WiMAX Arena

By Guest Blogger Dori Erann, Senior Director of Marketing Communications, Airspan

Due to recent Airspan developments, wireless operators are now able to take advantage of the full 50 MHz (lower and upper) 3.65 GHz frequency band. Until now, the lightly licensed frequency band made only the lower 25 MHz available for WiMAX operation. But earlier this week, Airspan, a WCAI member, announced that it has received the first-ever certification for a WiMAX system to operate in the upper 25 MHz (3675-3700 MHz).

Airspan has been a dominant player in the 3.65 GHz band in the U.S., with a majority market share as well as the first WiMAX system to be certified by the FCC for both portions of the band.

Implementing the FCC’s contention protocol, the Airspan HiperMAX system is now certified for use in the full 3.65 GHz. Existing Airspan customers can take advantage of this certification and can immediately apply for use of the upper 25 MHz. New operators will be able to apply for the full spectrum in their FCC registrations.

The certification applies to both fixed 802.16d as well as 802.16e applications.

There have been many speculations by industry players as to whether the upper ‘unrestricted’ band would be made available by the FCC. Operators nationwide have expressed strong interest and support for this move in order to allow added capacity and range, enabled by the additional spectrum.

Airspan clearly has a market advantage with this surprise certification. And, with double the amount of spectrum, Airspan 3.65 GHz customers will benefit greatly with the ability to integrate more cost effective business models, while better serving their customer base.

The timing of this new Airspan certification is ideal, allowing Broadband Stimulus applicants to incorporate new deployment and business models into their network plans, better meeting agency requirements by extending coverage with double the capacity and/or double the range.

For more information on Airspan’s equipment, please visit http://www.airspan.com/ or contact Declan Byrne, Chief Marketing Officer for Airspan at dbyrne@Airspan.com.

WCAI Congratulates Airspan on Industry-First FCC Certification for Upper 25MHz of 3.65GHz

WCAI member Airspan Networks announced today that the FCC certified its WiMAX equipment to operate over the full 50 MHz of the 3.65 GHz lightly licensed band in the United States. The certification for the first time allows U.S. 3.65 GHz operators to use the upper "unrestricted" 25 MHz of this lightly licensed frequency band.

The announcement is a major first step on the way to unleashing the potential of the 3.65 GHz band in the United States. This industry-first certification unlocks 25 MHz of valuable spectrum and opens the door to hundreds of licensees who stand ready to bring advanced wireless broadband services to rural America.

Led by some of the major players in the band, WCAI recently launched an effort to harmonize the 3.65 GHz frequencies by addressing its remaining regulatory and technical challenges. Airspan is an active member of the WCAI’s 3.65 GHz Working Group, which is also supported by major manufacturers and licensees in the 3.65 GHz band. We look forward to working with the FCC and the industry to unleash the value in the band to the benefit of operators, equipment vendors and the public.

WCAI Launches Industry Effort to Unlock 3.65 GHz Band Potential

Building on a solid track record of successful government advocacy in wireless broadband in the United States and globally, WCAI has launched an industry-led effort to unlock the potential of the 3.65 GHz band by addressing its remaining regulatory and technical challenges.

Earlier this month, we formed the 3.65 GHz Working Group to:

(1) Develop a synchronization protocol in the band to promote coordination and mitigate harmful interference among operators;
(2) Promote coordination between suppliers and operators; and
(3) Address regulatory issues within the band.

Leading the initiative is Jason Lazar, Vice President of Corporate Development and General Counsel of KeyOn Communications and Chair of our 3.65 GHz Working Group. KeyOn is a wireless broadband provider operating in the 3.65 GHz and other bands that serves customers in 11 states, primarily in rural markets.

“Our vast regulatory and technical experience makes WCAI an ideal vehicle for an industry-led 3.65 GHz Working Group,” said WCAI President Fred Campbell, who played an instrumental role in developing the rules for the 3.65 GHz band in his previous position as an FCC Wireless Bureau Chief. “This new initiative will help unlock the full potential of the 3.65 GHz band for the benefit of the industry and consumers alike.”

The 3.65 GHz band presents a unique opportunity to operators in the United States to expand their coverage to new markets and improve the economics and performance of their networks. Over 1,100 operators nationwide have applied for or received a license to operate in these lightly licensed frequencies since they were made available by the FCC in 2005. However, the band has still not reached a critical mass of deployment and harbors significant potential for growth.

“The establishment of a 3.65 GHz Working Group within WCAI represents a significant step forward for those using the band to deliver wireless broadband services,” said WCAI Counsel Paul Sinderbrand of Wilkinson Barker Knauer, LLP. “Whether working with industry to develop best practices that can be implemented without the need for new FCC rules, or working with the FCC to develop new rules where necessary, WCAI has a track record of unleashing the value in wireless broadband spectrum to the benefit of operators, equipment vendors and the public. WCAI was actively involved when the current rules governing the band were adopted, and the 3.65 GHz Working Group will continue WCAI's role in the growth of the band as a vehicle for wireless broadband distribution."

WCAI held an informative webinar presentation to launch the group.

WCAI Congratulates Michael Copps on Nomination as Interim FCC Chair

President Barack Obama today nominated Michael Copps to be the acting Chairman of the FCC.

I had the privilege of working with Commissioner Copps for a number of years, while at the FCC. His nomination is a well-deserved recognition of dedication and an outstanding record of public service. A strong advocate for achieving universal broadband access in the United States, Commissioner Copps is a long-time friend of the WCAI and of the wireless broadband industry.

We at WCAI congratulate Commissioner Copps on his nomination and look forward to continuing to work with him and the FCC to accelerate wireless broadband deployment.