What’s Next for Mobile Communications?

It took 120 years for the world to connect 1 billion people. It took 14 years to connect the next 3 billion. Since the early 1980s and the beginning of the mobile phone revolution until now, people have come to expect always being connected to their friends through e-mail, social networking, text messaging or just a phone call. The question is: “What’s next?”

WCAI will hold a member-only webinar to examine the evolution of the mobile phone. From an analog cellular transmission device to LTE smartphones of today, we’ll look at where we started 30 years ago and how the industry will grow in the next five years. The webinar, called Evolution of Mobility: Where We've Been and Where We Are Going, is scheduled for Thursday, Nov. 10 at 4 pm ET and features Eric Estroff, head of product collaboration at Nokia. Register Now!

The National Association of Broadcasters Is Wrong about Spectrum

It appears that the National Association of Broadcasters (“NAB”) is trying to thwart incentive auction legislation by arguing there is no spectrum crisis. In a letter sent to the leaders of the Senate and House Commerce Committees, NAB claims that wireless carriers are sitting on $15 billion of spectrum. They base this claim on an article published by dailywireless.org.

The article’s allegation that wireless providers are sitting on spectrum is just plain wrong. For example, the dailywireless.org article claims that AT&T won’t use its 700 MHz spectrum anytime soon (even though it will begin deployment this year), and that “[t]elecommunication companies should loose [sic] it or use it.” The reality is that, if 700 MHz licensees don’t use their spectrum in a timely manner, they will lose it. The buildout requirements applicable to the 700 MHz band are the strictest the FCC has ever adopted and were designed to ensure that 700 MHz licensees quickly deploy next generation 4G networks based on the LTE standard. Those FCC standards already contain a “use it or lose it” provision that provides more than enough incentive for rapid deployment at 700 MHz. (Disclaimer: I was Chief of the FCC’s Wireless Telecommunications Bureau when the 700 MHz rules were adopted and the auction was held.)

The author of the article apparently believes wireless providers should have begun deploying their 700 MHz networks the moment they received their licenses. Of course, that was impossible. New standards and hardware need to be developed whenever a new spectrum band is made available, which takes time. Hardware designers hadn’t even begun designing chipsets, test equipment, and base stations for LTE when the 700 MHz auction was held, and the LTE standard continues to be further refined and developed. Given this reality, the timetables for deployment in the 700 MHz band are very aggressive: These networks are already under construction only a few years after the auction was held and are relying on the earliest hardware implementations of the LTE standard. In contrast, the broadcasters’ transition from analog to digital took more than 20 years. Work on the digital television standard began in the late 1980’s, but the digital transition wasn’t complete until 2009 – and even then it was the result of a Congressional mandate rather than the voluntary efforts of the broadcasters.

The facts also show that even this aggressive deployment of 4G networks on current spectrum won’t be enough to satisfy consumer demand. AT&T’s mobile network traffic increased 5,000 percent after it began offering the iPhone, and data usage levels continue to rise. If more spectrum isn’t made available, service providers will face a spectrum crisis as early as 2014. America can’t afford to let this happen, and American consumers won’t stand for it.

LTE Inadequate to Address Capacity Crunch

4G, femtocells and offload are all partial solutions, say European carriers

By Caroline Gabriel, Research Director, Rethink Technology Research

Although LTE upgrades are generally touted as the magic bullet that will save wireless carriers from the overload on their networks, they will not be enough on their own to solve the problem. This was the conclusion of a panel discussion at the Broadband World Forum in strike-ridden Paris.

The main factor limiting the impact of LTE on operators' data plans will be shortage of spectrum, argued Denis Gautheret, an executive at Deutsche Telekom. "Spectrum is just like gas. You don't have enough," he said, as Paris struggled with fuel shortages amid a wave of strikes over spending cuts. In particular, the lower frequencies support more cost effective coverage, but the desirable digital dividend band around 800MHz has very limited capacity, he said.

As reported by TotalTelecom, fellow European cellcos are taking different approaches to making up for the limitations of 3G or LTE. Jaime Lluch Ladron, technology executive at Telefonica, said the Spanish group is mainly focused on smaller cells for capacity, and femtocells to improve the indoor penetration of 2.6GHz, a key LTE band. "Telefonica is moving towards street level picocells and femtocells... based on this 2.6GHz frequency," he said.

Femto Forum chairman Simon Saunders, on the same panel, said it costs about $7-$9 per gigabyte to carry data on a wireless network, but by using femtocells in key areas, operators can bring about "a reduction in the cost per bit in the order of a factor of four".

Other tactics to address the data crisis were outlined too - Vodafone Spain and Elisa in Finland are going the damage limitation route, offering premium packages to enterprise or high value customers to prioritize their traffic, and offloading the rest. However Ladron spoke against the conventional wisdom that Wi-Fi offload is a key solution as the user experience is not under the carrier's control, and if customers have a poor experience "they will call us. They will get upset with us."

Planning Your 4G Broadband Wireless Network

by John Celentano, Market Development Manager, TESSCO Technologies

There is much to consider when planning a 4G broadband wireless network.

Begin your planning by considering your customer, and asking yourself a few key questions. Who are your target customers -- residences or businesses? What services do you plan to offer to these customers?

With 4G broadband wireless technologies, whether WiMAX or Long Term Evolution (LTE), a service provider can offer a range of Internet Protocol (IP)-based services over very high-speed connections that are not possible with currently available 3G wireless technologies.


Consider the possibilities -- high-speed Internet access for homes and businesses alike, Voice over IP (VoIP), remote video surveillance, public safety and first responders’ unified communications, distance learning with video instruction, medical diagnostics at sites remote from hospitals, and other IP-based applications still to be developed. Will services be delivered to customers in a fixed location, or are they mobile? Fixed or mobile services determine the type of equipment that the customer will need to access the services.

Next, determine the size of your network. How big an area or territory do you plan to cover? How many customers, either homes or businesses, will you cover within this operating area?

To ensure reliable service, the base station transceivers (BTS) must be located to achieve maximum radio frequency (RF) signal coverage. Eradiated power levels and antenna heights determine the transmission quality. Antenna height must be sufficient to clear obstructions, and that height is determined by the terrain. Is it flat with few obstructions, or is it hilly, or even mountainous? Are there many trees and buildings in the way? These days, overcoming obstructions means mounting antennas on wireless towers or other heights such as rooftops, water or utility towers, even steeples.

Locating the BTS and calculating antenna heights are determined through RF propagation and interference studies that take into account terrain, transmit levels, and other radios operating in the same area. On what frequencies will you be transmitting? Are these in licensed or unlicensed bands? Are you going with WiMAX now, or waiting for LTE? This is important. Frequency and technology determine the RF propagation and interference characteristics, as well as data handling capabilities. Licensed or unlicensed operation also impacts the capital investment needed to build the network. Such studies generally are conducted by RF engineering and consulting firms.

Once the BTS sites are located, how will the antennas be mounted? Is there an existing tower or other suitable mounting point nearby that can be leased for the antennas and radio equipment? Or, do you need to construct your own tower? Online tools are available to calculate the necessary type and size of towers to support the antennas. Building a tower, however, means you must also buy land, apply for licenses, and obtain zoning approvals.

The other important consideration is how to “haul” customers’ connections from the BTS “back” to the network switching point. Backhaul circuits can be carried over either copper or fiber cable facilities leased from local wireline service providers. At the same time, owning your own point-to-point microwave systems for backhaul has become a cost-effective alternative to leased wireline circuits.

Once the BTS sites are established, the construction can begin. You will need to buy antennas, broadband wireless radios, cables to connect the radios to the antennas, microwave radios for backhaul, mounting hardware, DC power and backup batteries, and equipment cabinets along with tools and test sets. All of this equipment can be purchased from a variety of vendors, or through a single source provider such as TESSCO. You will need a professional contractor or construction company to do the actual installation.

The final step is to prove the system works as designed. After the BTS sites are activated, RF propagation and interference tests can be performed with spectrum analyzers. Signal quality and strength can be tested at selected locations around the entire coverage area.

Once the network is operational, your task is to market and sell the broadband services that it can support. Certainly, a sound network plan and design will yield profitable revenue streams for years to come.

Featured in The Wireless Journal, January/February 2010. Reprinted with permission from TESSCO Technologies. www.TESSCO.com

Editor’s Note: WCAI members who would like to be featured in the WCAI Member Spotlight section should contact Susan Polyakova at susan@wcai.com.

FCC Choose LTE for Public Safety

It’s official: LTE is the chosen 4G technology for interoperable public safety networks in the 700 MHz band. Yesterday the FCC granted conditional approval of 21 petitions filed by cities, counties and states that sought waivers to move forward with the construction of regional or statewide interoperable wireless broadband networks in the 700 MHz public safety broadband spectrum. In doing so, the FCC mandated use of the LTE air interface.

Strong Growth for Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Base

By Basharat Ashai, Market Analyst, APAC & MEA - Maravedis

At the end of Q3 2009, 4GCounts reported 4.73 million BWA/WiMAX subscribers being served by over 200 operators, representing an 18% growth from Q2 2009, and an 80% growth from Q3 2008.

For the first time 4GCounts reported that the number of mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) subscribers has surpassed the number of fixed WiMAX (802.16-2004) subscribers worldwide. At the end of Q3 2009, the 802.16-2004 based CPEs accounted for 1.30 million CPEs. On the other hand, the number of 802.16e-2005 CPEs deployed accounted for 1.45 million. Q309 growth over the previous quarter for the 802.16d based CPEs deployed was 13% compared to 46.5% for the 802.16e-2005 based CPEs. With mobile WiMAX being deployed by heavyweights like Yota (Russia), UQ Communications (Japan) and Clearwire (USA), we expect it to dominate the worldwide WiMAX subscriber base in the coming quarters. For Q4 2009 we expect to see 1.5 million new subscriber additions, for a total subscriber base of 6.5 million by the end of last year.

When looking at the devices that 4GCounts operators are using, indoor modems have the largest market share, accounting for over 3.6 million units or 77%, followed by USB dongles with 595,000 or 13%, and 244,000 or 5% PCMCIA cards. Operators are still mostly focused on indoor modem CPEs and USB dongles, but they believe they will be ready to move to phones and Mobile Internet Devices (MID) in the coming quarters. WiMAX has to work with 3G and Wi-Fi to ensure devices (especially phones) support these interfaces. Devices also have to work on multiple WiMAX networks. Devices need to be certified to ensure interoperability, and to operate on multiple bands to facilitate roaming domestically and internationally.

As current 802.16e-2005 mobile WiMAX networks are deployed globally, work continues on the next generation of the technology, 802.16m, which will provide greater performance, capacity and flexibility over existing legacy networks. In October 2009 the WiMAX Forum and member companies announced their support of the 802.16m standard for consideration as an IMT advanced technology. Yota is the first operator worldwide to have trialed the new standard in partnership with Samsung. Yota plans to be one of the first operators in the world to install the technology once it becomes available.

802.16m has yet to gain market acceptance among WiMAX operators. While some companies are taking a wait-and-see approach before committing to the technology, companies expressing support include Beceem and Intel on the chip side, and Samsung, Huawei, ZTE, Alvarion and Cisco on the infrastructure side. Clearwire will consider preliminary trials in 2011, which is in line with when the first available commercial equipment will be available. Understandably, Clearwire is focused on growing their existing network and POPs coverage from 30 million to 120 million in 2010 based on commercial equipment that is available today. Yota might become one of the first 802.16m adopters.

The 802.16m profile is currently under evaluation and is expected to be ratified along with WiMAX Release 2 later this year. We should then expect to start seeing the first 802.16m dongles in late 2011 and more widespread commercial deployments starting in 2012.

In the most recent edition of the 4GCounts Quarterly Report (Issue 10), Maravedis has compared the pricing plans of leading 3G and mobile WiMAX operators by region. It would have been ideal to compare 3G and WiMAX pricing plans for identical same speed and data usages within a particular country, but the reality is that plans vary considerably in terms of speed, type of usage plan (minutes, versus bandwidth), and pricing. For the select group of leading WiMAX and 3G operators we found that 85% of WiMAX operators offer unlimited data usage, compared to 41% of 3G operators. This proportion will gradually decrease as operators look for new ways to manage data consumption.

On the LTE side, the second half of 2009 showed progress in terms of new operator commitments – 51 by the end of Q3 – but also in terms of device certification schemes and chipset development. Although dual mode devices including GSM, EVDO, and LTE are not yet commercially available, the first engineering samples of dual-mode chipsets were shipped in early 2009. Devices will become available in the second half of 2010 for dongles/embedded applications, but not until 2011 for handsets and lower power devices such as MiFi WiFi routers.

Although in its infancy, the LTE market has started to reveal its major players. In terms of infrastructure, Huawei seems to be the strongest manufacturer currently, with important awards in Austria, Italy, Uzbekistan and even Norway, which was expected to be under Ericsson and NSN’s veto. NSN and Ericsson are nevertheless maintaining their market share thanks to other awards (such as TeliaSonera’s deployment in Norway and Sweden), but they will surely have to manage this new competitor carefully. Motorola (awarded by KDDI) has been present from the beginning, taking advantage of its experience acquired through WiMAX deployments. This same path has been followed by Alcatel-Lucent, who has won contracts as the LTE infrastructure supplier for Verizon Wireless (USA) and Bouygues Telecom (France). The other official infrastructure supplier for Verizon LTE is Ericsson.
As far as devices are concerned, Samsung appears at the forefront, having signed contracts with TeliaSonera and MetroPCS (USA). In the second case dual CDMA-LTE handsets have been promised by Samsung. LG LTE device development is also quite advanced, which includes an in-house designed baseband chipset. In August last year LG successfully demonstrated the world's first live handoff of an active data session while moving between CDMA and LTE networks. Both Samsung and LG have been selected by Verizon as user equipment suppliers. Apart from these, ZTE is also trying to win contracts with any early commitment, being the sole supplier for the trial CSL is deploying in Hong Kong.

In the core (EPC) arena Cisco, Juniper and Ericsson could be considered the most important suppliers, being chosen respectively by the two biggest deployments in USA and Europe: Verizon and TeliaSonera. Alcatel-Lucent and Motorola also have EPC solutions, although have not been awarded relevant contracts yet.

4GCounts is a unique web-based service tracking 4G operator deployments and providing detailed information on the worldwide 4G ecosystem. 4GCounts currently profiles over 200 operators across 92 countries.
MARAVEDIS is a premier global provider of market intelligence and advisory services for the broadband wireless technology, regulatory and 4G markets, including LTE, WiMAX and backhaul at the RAN, devices and packet core levels.

Harris Stratex Networks Changes Its Name to Aviat Networks

By Stuart Little, Director of Corporate Marketing, Aviat Networks

On January 28, Harris Stratex Networks, Inc. will become Aviat Networks, Inc. Our new name and brand represent a culmination of our company’s transformation over the last three years from that of a specialized microwave backhaul equipment vendor to a world-class wireless IP network solutions provider, with a comprehensive portfolio of wireless access, backhaul and core networking products and lifecycle services.

OUR MARKETS

Wireless public and private telecommunications operators need to be able to offer leading edge services and expand into new and emerging markets in order to position themselves for the future. Unfortunately they lack the time, resources, or local expertise to tackle new opportunities, while protecting their existing business given constrained resources and ROI pressures.

Mobile service providers also have a new sense of urgency to invest in their backhaul network to avoid the capacity crunch that is being driven by the explosion in bandwidth demand as a result of the introduction of new smart devices and the evolution of networks to LTE. At the same time these operators must address the so-called ‘Revenue Gap’ – the widening divergence between increasing network operational costs and flat subscriber revenue.

All around the world service providers and network operators are also now planning to introduce new broadband services or simply lower network operational costs to strengthen their competitive position. From Africa throughout Asia and in the USA, operators are building networks that extend simple voice or new broadband data services to un-served or under-served communities, and are seeking to implement new technologies such as Smart Grids, often funded by government stimulus funds.

OUR SOLUTIONS

Aviat offers best-of-breed transformational broadband solutions that provide operators with the speed and agility to seize new service and market opportunities, while optimizing legacy investments which fuels sustainable growth, as well as operational peace of mind.

With a rich legacy of innovation and technical expertise, we deliver complete wireless solutions to build, expand and evolve communications networks globally. Our products and services extend from the core to the edge, private and enterprise networks to broadband mobility, planning to execution.

Our LTE-ready microwave backhaul solutions provide the most comprehensive IP transport features of any other wireless backhaul solution in its class, giving operators the peace of mind that the solution that they deploy today will provide a smooth migration path to all-IP networks needed tomorrow, extending life of their existing infrastructure and without having to make a risky early leap to all-IP.

Our WiMAX access portfolio provides an immediate and cost-effective solution to deliver high speed broadband wireless data services. Our solution includes everything an operator could need, from access, high speed wireless backhaul, to core services and umbrella service assurance, all backed by a broad range of deployment options and services, including end-to-end managed services that address multi-vendor, multi-protocol environments.

OUR ADVANTAGE

Our global reach and strong portfolio accelerates time to market and ensures a scalable, high performance network. Unlike monolithic telecommunication vendors who subscribe to a “one size fits all” approach to serving operators – large and small – which results in vendor lock-in, Aviat is known for its highly individualized transformation experience which net better results.

In an environment of uncertainty and unrelenting competitive pressures, Aviat has the experience and agility to anticipate what’s coming to help our customers make the right choices so that their investments today aren’t left stranded tomorrow. Because we’re thinking ahead, our products and services are designed for flexible evolution, so no matter what the future brings operators will have all options that they need to move forward and thrive.

And with local presence on the ground worldwide, our migration experts understand specific local requirements and customs. We work by the side of our customers with personal attention and collaboration to understand and meet the unique challenges of their business and markets.

WE MAKE BROADBAND NETWORKS WORK

Aviat Networks is enabling the broadband future. From fixed networks to broadband mobility, from TDM to all Ethernet/IP, from public to private, from planning to managed services, from the core to the edge – we help customers create, expand and manage the best networks for their markets and their bottom lines.

For more information visit www.aviatnetworks.com.

2010 Prediction: A Mix of WiMAX Smartphones and Low-Cost Devices to Emerge

By Guest Blogger Pascal Deriot, Senior Analyst & Partner, WiMAX & LTE Equipment, Maravedis

In a recent interview, Sprint CEO Dan Hesse commented that not only was its network up and running, but its compelling and cool devices, such as dual-mode 3G/4G smartphones, will make WiMAX a successful adoption. On the same front, Clearwire CEO Bill Morrow explained that the second stage of Clearwire’s business model, targeting the PDA/smartphone market, is to happen in the second half of 2010. Although Yota has proved that smartphones can be a great vehicle to promote the fantastic bandwidth capability of the first 4G technology, we also project that the cost of the WiMAX platform is another angle that needs to be considered.

As previously seen in Wi-Fi or 3GPP/3GPP2 markets, WiMAX chipset vendors have leveraged their first or second generations to further reduce chipset costs by migrating to a smaller geometry process node, and/or by introducing monolithic dies. At the same time, new packaging approaches, such as System-in-Package and optimized Bill Of Material (BOM), have significantly reduced the footprint of the WiMAX platform, allowing device manufacturers to launch a new generation of products that are more appealing, integrated, and that combine 3G and 4G standards.

The new research report released by WCAI member Maravedis in partnership with Reveal Wireless, “WiMAX Wave2 Subscriber Station Chipset Vendors Competitive Analysis” provides a detailed comparison of the key WiMAX chipset vendors, identifying system architectures, estimating chipset and system BOM, and cost of available devices such as CPEs, USB dongles or Express Cards. One of the report’s major findings is that WiMAX mass-market adoption may require sub-US$10 chipsets that are power and performance optimized for each application-specific segment. Maravedis and Reveal Wireless have identified three chipset vendors best positioned to achieve the US$10 price target through base-band and RF monolithic die integration in 65-nm.

Although most of the available chipsets are not highly optimized because they were compelled to cover a broad range of application segments, an additional study revealed that device manufacturers could build a basic WiMAX USB dongle solution for as low as sub US$50, while maintaining healthy profit margins. The figure below presents the breakdown of the cost of the USB dongle: the electronic BOM (eBOM) is composed of all the platform components, excluding the chipset. A basic USB dongle platform can be divided into 3 main sub-systems: base-band, RF and power management sub-systems, bringing the component count to 150-200 components. The rBOM, also called sometimes mBOM, defines the mechanical Bill-Of-Material. It contains the non-electronic components such as connectors, USB plug, antennas, PCB, housing, shielding or screws. Our total manufacturing cost estimation includes the labor cost, profit and SG&A. According to our research the WiMAX chipset, by its complexity and silicon die size, represents 44% of the total cost.

Moreover, our analysis shows that a combination of an aggressive Bill-Of-Material reduction by 20-30%, combined with a second generation chipset and higher production volumes, could further shrink the cost of the USB dongle by roughly 20%, providing a sub-US$40 product in 2010 time-frame.

We believe that WiMAX mass-market adoption requires a ubiquitous coverage and technology maturity, a mixed portfolio of appealing, integrated and low cost devices, and competitive WiMAX chipsets. We have no doubt that all these ingredients will be ready next year contributing to a fantastic growth of the WiMAX market, in all regions.

MARAVEDIS is a leading analyst firm focusing on disruptive technologies including smart networks using WiMAX, IEEE, and 3GPP/LTE. For more information about Maravedis, please visit http://www.maravedis-bwa.com/ or contact info@maravedis-bwa.com.

4G Wireless Network Roaming Challenges Cited at WCAI Symposium

Industry representatives participating in the WCAI’s International Symposium panel on roaming last week cited the challenges carriers will face in inking roaming agreements on 4G networks and suggested that the FCC leave data roaming up to the market instead of imposing rules, according to TR Daily coverage. Joan Marsh, vice president-federal regulatory for AT&T, and other panelists cited the difficulty of knowing exactly at this point how roaming agreements for 4G services will work in light of the absence of a standard for LTE technology, as well as uncertainty about the exact applications over networks. Speakers also noted that standards for VoIP offerings over a 4G platform haven’t been adopted. Jim Schlichting, senior deputy chief of the FCC’s Wireless Bureau, suggested that one of the factors the FCC will consider when mulling whether to change its roaming rules is the expectation of consumers when using the mobile Internet. He noted the agency also must consider whether it has the jurisdiction to regulate data roaming.

WCAI Congratulates Alcatel-Lucent on Selection as Primary Vendor for Verizon’s LTE Network

Verizon Wireless announced today that it selected WCAI Board Member Alcatel-Lucent as one of the two primary vendors for its initial LTE network deployments in the United States. WCAI congratulates Alcatel Lucent on this major announcement. As the industry is migrating to the next-generation technology networks, LTE will play a major role in enabling new forms of communication and helping achieve universal wireless broadband connectivity worldwide. A technology-neutral Association for the wireless broadband industry, WCAI promotes continued progress in the deployment and adoption of wireless broadband technology around the globe. We are delighted to see our Board members, such as Alcatel Lucent, play an instrumental role in achieving this goal.

Impressions from WiMAX World

I was at WiMAX World in Chicago last week, where I spent almost as much time talking as listening. At the 4G Executive Summit, a developing theme was whether LTE would predominate or the LTE and WiMAX standards would eventually merge. This theme ultimately took a backseat to the even bigger news at WiMAX World surrounding the launch of Sprint Nextel's Xohm WiMAX network in Baltimore. No matter where the 4G ecosystem goes in the years to come, WiMAX is here now, and according to most reports, is working very well. I'm going to have a chance to see the network on Wednesday at the official launch party, and I hope to have a report here soon. That is not to say we won't see significant LTE deployments too. I stand by what I said at the 4G Executive Summit: "each one can play an important role." The WiMAX party is just starting a little earlier.